Foot and Mouth Disease Update #1

20 March 2001 

Foot and mouth disease was first publicly reported on 19th February, after an inspector at Cheale Meats abattoir in Brentwood, Essex found signs of the disease in 27 pigs. Then, on Friday 23rd February the disease was confirmed at a pig farm at Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland, which had links with Cheale Meats. 

Although the start of the current epidemic dates from that time, there are now indications that the disease was actually present in the UK some time before that - perhaps two months previously. And, possibly, the MAFF knew (or suspected the presence) of the disease before it became public knowledge. Key findings in this respect are: 

· In early January, some shepherds in the Galloway hills were experiencing a "massive loss of lambs" amongst hill sheep. This is very rare and indicated that something unusual was happening. MAFF animal health officers were asked to investigate. Requests for information on the issue were rebuffed. One farmer reported double the level of abortion and tests for epizootic abortion were negative. 

· A consignment of sheep through Ross-on-Wye market was delivered to France by stock dealer Kevin Feakins on or about 16 January. These sheep were later blood tested by French veterinary officials and found to be antibody positive for FMD, indicating that they were infected prior to 16 January. Another dealer from Plymouth, a Mr Inizan, reported sending sheep to France on 31 January. These were also found antibody positive. 

· In early February, MAFF officials were apparently asking about the availability of railway sleepers suitable for funeral pyres to deal with foot and mouth disease - believed to be in Longtown, Cumbria. On 16 March, Mr Christopher Gill raised this issue in the House of Commons. Nick Brown responded: "…the business about railway sleepers being purchased because we knew the disease was there three weeks before anything was said is another red herring". Subsequently, a timber stockist, Mrs Talbot, from Stafford, reported on BBC's Radio 4 (20 March) that she had received an inquiry from MAFF "in the 1st week of February" asking about the availability of railway sleepers in the event of a FMD outbreak. Her firm had supplied sleepers during the 1967 outbreak, but had not heard from MAFF since. A MAFF spokesman was cited as saying that the MAFF was always making contingency plans and had announced the outbreak as soon as they had become aware of it. Any delay in reporting would be "a very serious accusation". 

· On 22 February, pigs in Heddon-on-the-Wall, Tyne and Wear were reported as showing signs of the disease. The disease was confirmed the next day. Ministry vets report that the disease may have been on the unit for five weeks. 

· PA News reported on 19 March that Hillside Animal Sanctuary in Frettenham, near Norwich was under restrictions due to a member of staff visiting Heddon-on-the-Wall in Northumberland, the alleged source of the foot and mouth infected farm in December. 

Putting these separate strands together, it cannot be disputed that the disease in the Heddon-on-the-Wall unit pre-dated 19 February. This would be expected as there will be an incubation period of 2-3 weeks and, it is understood, some of the pigs showed signs of healed lesions. Taking into account that that the course of the disease can be several weeks, this puts the date introduction of the virus to some time in January. 

The episode of unexplained abortion in Galloway in early January (and it is understood that sheep farmers in Cumbria have experienced similar problems) is indicative of possible occurrence. If these animals were, in fact, infected with FMD and one assumed the source was Heddon-on-the-Wall, this would put back the date of initial infection in the pig unit to perhaps late December. This would appear to be supported by the Ross-on-Wye sheep exported to France, delivered on 16 January. 

Then there is the curious episode of the restrictions placed on the Hillside Animal Sanctuary, because of a visit by a member of staff in December to Heddon-on-the-Wall. This might simply be over-caution on the part of MAFF but it might also indicate that the Ministry is also working on a December time-frame. 

As to when the Ministry knew or suspected the presence of FMD, the lack of confirmation of the Galloway reports precludes any assumption that MAFF was at this time suspecting FMD. However, the report of MAFF officials inquiring about the railway sleepers three weeks before Heddon-on-the-Wall is instructive. Although Brown was challenged about his knowledge of this incident, in his answer he converted "inquiries" into "purchases" and then dismissed the idea as a "red herring". But he did not deny the incident had taken place, despite an opportunity so to do. One learns, in this context, to take lack of denial as confirmation. 

On the basis of what we have, therefore, there is good support for a thesis that the current FMD epidemic may have started in December and some support for the idea that MAFF had, at the very least, suspicions that the disease had broken some three of four weeks before it made a public declaration. 

This information has serious implications for the current control strategy, which is based on early detection, isolation and destruction. Obviously, this strategy can only work if individual outbreaks are picked up early, before the disease has had a chance to spread but, if seems the case, the epidemic is already well advanced, then it cannot succeed. Neither can "ring-fencing" with vaccination. The problem is further exacerbated when, as is the case, large numbers of potentially infected animals have not been traced. 

In this case, the only possible option for eliminating the disease is the somewhat drastic step of killing all animals in the "hotspot" areas, which explains the current policy of MAFF. It also explains the apparent reluctance of MAFF to carry out blood testing of animals in the designated kill zones: that would reveal the full extent of the infection which is privately estimated to be 80 percent of sheep in the affected areas. 

Given the widespread nature of the infection, however, such an option must be carried out with speed which, in the current circumstances, would require declaring an emergency and calling out the Army in force. In that event, a 3rd May General Election could not be called. It seems plausible, therefore, that the extent of the epidemic is being concealed to avoid forcing Mr Blair to cancel his election. 

ends 

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