F&D - UPDATE 16

Dr. Richard North PhD. [UKIP]
Research Director EDD [European Parliament]
4th June 2001
Have they now culled the truth? 

Six million more to die? 

Despite Professor King the chemist's confident prediction that the foot and mouth epidemic was going to come skidding to a halt on 7 June, he now seems to be having second thoughts.  Without so much as a blush, he is suggesting that it might go on until August, but even that is a little hesitant.  We get the impression that it might be even longer. 

King the chemist has not actually said it'll be over by Christmas, and just as well, given the historical resonances of such predictions.  For my part, I can confidently predict the disease will be over by Christmas.  The only thing I am not prepared to do is say which one.  On the basis of what we are seeing, the epidemic could run well into next year and beyond. 

Un-Settle-ing signs 

Perhaps the strongest clue to how deadly the situation has become is the experience in Settle - the Bermuda 'rectangle' of foot and mouth.  Crucially, while sheep flocks in Cumbria were being found with infection levels of 10-20 percent, as much as 80 percent of animals in the Settle area have been found infected.  Add to that the reports from vets that they are finding a high proportion of healed lesions and this becomes highly significant and very worrying. 

What this amounts to is that, far from Settle suffering from 'sporadic outbursts', as prime minister Blair put it, the disease has been there some considerable time and has become well-established.  It had not suddenly spread to the area.  It had been there for a considerable time. 

To fully understand this, it must be appreciated that - contrary to the 'urban myths' happily retailed by media correspondents - foot and mouth disease is not highly infectious, at least, not in sheep.  Far from 'ripping through flocks' like wildfire, it affects a very small proportion, up to five percent at a time. 

Those animals pass it on to others and then, in the main, recover.  The newly-infected animals pass it on to others, and so on.  Far from 'ripping through', the disease ripples though the flock, slowly, insidiously and, as often as not, undetected.  Sheep will show only transient signs of infection, perhaps for two or three days.  Thus, to find flocks with high levels of infection is the best possible indicator of long-established infection. 

The Cheshire experience 

With disease long-established in Cumbria, and now with evidence of a similar status in the Yorkshire Dales, it does not take a genius to work out that, when the disease 'popped up' in the Clitheroe and Knutsford locales, that these were not isolated outbreaks.  Just looking at a map, the more likely explanation is that the disease has broken out of the Cumbria 'ring' and taken a right turn on its way to Settle. 

The problem here, in addition to the sheep, is the wild-life.  The whole point of the rapid response to foot and mouth, and the 'slash and burn' tactics is to remove infection from the environment as fast as possible, not least to ensure that it does not get established in the wild animal and bird populations, which can harbour and spread the virus. 

However, with the disease now established for, at the very least, four months and almost certainly longer, it is now inconceivable that there has been no spread into wild animals and birds.  With free-roaming populations of Roe deer in some localities, rabbits, foxes, rats, mice and even hedgehogs (which can actually suffer the disease) it is certain that there is a significant natural reservoir of the disease, outside the farm animal population. 

Furthermore, a plausible and worrying mechanism of spread is the bird population - carrion crows, the range of raptors, magpies, starlings and even seagulls.  All or any of these have the potential to spread the disease, to the extent that it would be improbable if they were not somehow involved.   

While the Ministry of Agriculture might prefer to pin the blame on errant farmers, vehicle movements, etc., it would be highly unwise to rule out spread by these mechanisms. 

Add to that strong rumours that the disease has spread into East Yorkshire and down into Lincolnshire, has been well-established in Derbyshire for some time, and is roaring away through the Brecon Beacons - as well as grumbling on in Devon - and the picture is far from happy.  No comfort can be taken from Ministry reports.  These have long proved unreliable - and even recently, a well-authenticated report was received of infection on the hills to the east of Manchester, which the Ministry chose to ignore. 

Killing to go on 

By day 100 of the epidemic, the headline figure of 3,000,000 animals slaughtered had been reached, a daily average of 30,000 animals.  In fact, as we now know, the Ministry had not been counting recently born progeny - which could account for a million more (as a very conservative estimate).   

Add to that the million-plus animals killed on the 'welfare' scheme and the 700,000 on the 'firebreak' cull in Cumbria and Devon that went missing from the Ministry lists.  Then add the thousands of animals that were killed 'by mistake' or have been picked up on routine blood testing and slaughtered (mass slaughter was under way on the Isle of Sheppy during the Spring Bank Holiday, which has not been reported by the Ministry).  Altogether, the number of animals killed by the Ministry in its response to foot and mouth has to be well into 6,000,000.  It is possible that the figure could be as high as eight million.  And that was by day 100. 

As it stands, there has been no diminution of the killing rate.  On average, at least 30,000 animals a day are being killed.  And, in accordance with the procedure laid down by the EU Commission for restoration of EU 'disease-free' status, large numbers of animals must be blood tested.  With the wide spread of the disease and the longevity of the epidemic, it is a matter of certainty that large numbers of animals will show up positive when they are tested – this is what happened in Sheppy. 

On this basis, there are absolutely no grounds for believing that, over the next three months - brining us to the end of August - the killing rate will diminish at all.  With more of Blair's 'sporadic outbursts', there is every expectation that, for the next 100 days, the daily average will be sustained at a 30,000-plus 'headline' figure.  Given the structural under-reporting by MAFF, that means, before the epidemic is over, we must expect another six million animals to die.  Twelve million animals will have been slaughtered - one in five or 20 percent of the farm animal population in the UK. 

And even then, it may not be over. 

ends.

There is NO CopyRight on this document, which is one of many 1,000s of items freely available on http://www.SilentMajority.co.UK [some 18Mbs.] & 10s of 1,000s of items on The SilentMajority CD [with over 50Mbs.] which contains the entire web site, 1,000s of apposite quotations, Articles, Speeches, ArtWork, & The FULL text of The EU Treaties, Several Related Books, The British Constitution, The American Constitution & Numerous related Items.
SilentMajority nor any associate thereof does NOT vouch for the veracity of the documents hosted on its site or CD nor any foreign language documents thereon & advises you consult your own solicitor on legal details as we do not accept liability for nor presume to give legal advice ourselves.
For a copy of the CD please mail payment of £20.00 for UK deliver or £25.00 for ALL other Countries payable to:
Greg Lance – Watkins,
Glance Back Books,
17 Upper Church Street,
CHEPSTOW,
NP16 5EX
Monmouthshire,
GREAT BRITAIN
For delivery of 2 x CDs
one for your own use
and one for on selling or donation to an individual of influence (media, politician, activist etc.)

IF YOU wish to use the Material Above, which is freely provided
Please have the Courtesy to Print It out in its entirety from start to finish with NO alterations, as displayed.
To This Point