The Times

Courage, Not Killing, is The Answer Mrs Beckett

MAGNUS LINKLATER
2001.07.19

V
accination is still the only answer to the plague ravaging our countryside The latest issue of CAM, the magazine for Cambridge "alumni", hits my desk. It carries an admiring profile of one of the university's most famous sons, Professor David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser. Its opening sentence leaves me open-mouthed: "Dave King has had a good war when it comes to foot-and-mouth, walking tall through the hail of media shrapnel that has cut down plenty of those in the front line." It was he, says the article, who first gave warning to the Prime Minister of the dangers of the disease, who introduced the culling policy; and who predicted that the epidemic would be "fading fast" by June. "By early  April," it goes on, "firebreak culls were proving a success . . . by the middle of April, with over 1 million animals dead, he was announcing that it was 'fully under control', by the end of the month that it was 'receding', and should be eradicated by July or August." I checked the latest information from DEFRA, the people formerly known as MAFF, who chart the spread of the disease. I found no mention of eradication. The average number of cases remains stubbornly at two or three a day, and the epidemic is still ravaging whole areas in Cumbria, Yorkshire, and the Brecon Beacons. I found no one prepared to say that it would be over by the autumn and many who believe it will still be with us well into next year.

Thus far, some 3.5 million animals have been slaughtered, and the predictions are that that figure could reach six million. With the tourist industry in the North of England, Wales and the Borders on its knees, a conservative estimate is that the cost to the British economy may be as much as 10 billion - twice as much as BSE. And Professor King walks tall.

In any other sphere, a leader whose strategy had so disastrously failed would surely by now have resigned. It says much for the arrogance of sience that Professor King is not only still there, but continuing to argue that his course is the correct one. His view is simple, if brutal: once the disease had taken hold, the only way of containing it is to kill infected animals within 24 hours and others in contiguous areas within 48 hours.

The fact that the disease has continued to spread has more to do with the failure of farmers and others to observe "bio-security" than with any flaws in the policy itself. He has clearly convinced his new boss, Margaret Beckett, the Environment Secretary, that this is the only possible course of action, because she has endorsed it. She talks of "bearing down more heavily on the disease," issuing new restrictions, and keeping animal movements to the "absolute minimum".

Yet this is not just a failure of policy, it is a defeat for science. Five months into the worst outbreak of foot-and-mouth the world has seen, Britain, which once boasted scientists whose genius lay in eradicating disease, has, in this case, simply caved into it. All arguments for vaccination, a proven medical success story, which has been instrumental in combating virulent diseases, both animal and human, the world over, have foundered.

Mrs Beckett says that the case for vaccination is "constantly under review," but the truth is that it has not been properly considered since the early days, when it was endorsed by the Government but rejected by the farming unions. The official view is that it is an unreliable way of defeating the disease - it cannot set up a "firebreak" as fast or as efficiently as a cull, it would mask the incubation of FMD, and do nothing to prevent its spread. It would delay Britain winning back FMD-free status, it would not be tolerated by Europe, and the consumers would refuse to buy vaccinated milk or meat. Finally the farmers are still against it. None of these statements is true. Or rather, every one of these statements can and has been challenged directly by experts who point to the success of vaccination elsewhere. Because the proposed vaccine is the killed, or inactivated version, it does not infect the vaccinated animal. It acts as an antigen stimulating the immune system to produce a protective neutralising antibody. Either a high payload vaccine requiring only one dose could be used, or a commercial vaccine requiring two doses separated by three weeks.

It could be introduced tomorrow to protect, for instance, hefted sheep in the Brecon Beacons National Park, or animals trapped on the fells of Cumbria, allowing them to move freely within a vaccinated area. At present, they are dying of diseases like fly-strike because they cannot be sheared or moved off ground that is filthy and used up. This has become an animal welfare issue as well as a battle against an epidemic.

It is untrue to say that all farmers are opposed to vaccination. A growing number now realises that regaining export status is a distant dream, and that vaccination might actually contain the disease more quickly than the present policy - as happened in The Netherlands. Nor is Europe necessarily against it. Germany, Holland and France have reconsidered their positions, and a crucial meeting of agriculture ministers and FMD experts will meet in September with the express aim of hearing the arguments for vaccination.

Instead of waiting for others to tell us what to do, Britain should seize the initiative and use "ring" vaccination to stamp out the latest outbreaks in selective areas. If that works, then the experiment can be extended.

This, surely, is how science advances - not by sitting still, but by trying something new. And it should be led by a scientist. If Professor King can persuade Mrs Beckett that there is a more civilised way of defeating this disease than simply killing animals, then he can indeed claim to be walking tall.

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