The Financial Times - Mar 31, 2001

FRONT PAGE - FIRST SECTION:

Fears of no meat exports until 2004

By ROSEMARY BENNETT and CATHY NEWMAN

The foot-and-mouth epidemic could put paid to most British meat and livestock exports until 2004, government advisers have warned amid growing pressure on Tony Blair to abandon plans for a May 3 election. 

A three-year halt to overseas sales of meat and livestock vulnerable to foot-and-mouth could cost up to Pounds 1.2bn in lost exports. 

An insider at the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food said: "We're going to have no exports until 2004: that's the advice the officials have given us. The people who think we are going to get it back next year are deluding themselves. 
"What European country is going to take the risk? You will have sporadic cases popping up. In trade, people use the slightest excuse."

Farmers had hoped that if the government continued its slaughter policy, exports could resume this year. The Meat and Livestock Commission said last night it thought the ministry was being unduly pessimistic. It believes disease-free areas of Britain could begin exporting much sooner and is to approach the European Commission to try to get exports resumed in selected areas of Northern Ireland. 

Another 38 cases of foot-and-mouth were confirmed yesterday, bringing the total to 817. 

Mr Blair today starts a final weekend of deliberations on the election date. The clamour to postpone grew, with bishops and business leaders calling for a delay until June at the earliest. A big majority of floating voters surveyed this week by the FT as part of its focus group series said Mr Blair should postpone an election until foot-and-mouth was under control. 

Mr Blair must decide by Tuesday at the latest whether to go ahead with May, to allow time for key legislation to pass before parliament is dissolved. 
His official request must be made to the Queen, who will be in residence at Windsor Castle from this weekend for a month. She can come back at short notice on Monday if necessary and plans to be in the capital for an engagement on Tuesday. 

Mr Blair, who visited some of the worst-affected areas in Scotland yesterday, travels to Chequers today. Downing Street staff said no visitors were scheduled to visit him there but did not rule out a last-minute change of plan. 
A Downing Street insider described the atmosphere as "edgy". The risk with pressing ahead in May was that the government might appear not to care about the countryside and was not totally focused on the crisis, he said. 

The government has had great difficulty reviving trade in British beef following the BSE crisis, which led to a ban on exports in 1996. The embargo was lifted in August 1999, but France has still refused to accept beef from Britain. The ministry of agriculture believes a similar problem will dog farmers after the foot-and-mouth epidemic. 

Plans to vaccinate 180,000 cattle in Cumbria and Devon have been put on hold as farmers became more hopeful that the cull was beginning to work. Nick Brown, agriculture minister, cancelled a trip to Cumbria to brief farmers about the issue. 
Since the army was brought in, more animals have been killed within 24 hours of an outbreak being reported. 

The Financial Times Limited
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