Foot and Mouth Disease Update 2

22 March 2001 

Despite government denials, questions remain as to whether foot and mouth disease was present in the UK before it was publicly reported on 19th February and, if it was, whether MAFF knew or suspect its presence? 

We have the following to go on: 

· Reports from Dumfries and Galloway of shepherds experiencing high levels of abortion amongst hill sheep in early January, with alleged MAFF involvement. Was this the case? Does anyone have any contacts in that area? 

· Claims (unconfirmed) that FMD was "rife" in sheep at Longtown market, Cumbria in 12 February. Can anyone get first-hand reports? 

· An unconfirmed report that a consignment of sheep through Ross-on-Wye market was delivered to France by stock dealer Kevin Feakins on or about 16 January, the sheep later blood tested by French veterinary officials and found to be antibody positive for FMD. Does anyone have any contact with Feakins? 

· A confirmed report from a French dealer, Mr Inizan, who sent sheep from south Wales to France on 31 January, which were found antibody positive for FMD by the French authorities. 

· Two confirmed reports from timber merchants in Staffs that they were contacted by MAFF asking about the availability of railway sleepers suitable for funeral pyres to deal with foot and mouth disease. Are there other suppliers who may have been contacted? 

· A third-hand report, unconfirmed, that a vet at Heddon-on-the-Wall claims that the disease may have been on the unit for five weeks. Does anyone have direct information? 

· A PA News report on 19 March that Hillside Animal Sanctuary in Frettenham, near Norwich was under restrictions due to a member of staff visiting Heddon-on-the-Wall in Northumberland, the alleged source of the foot and mouth infected farm, in December. Why was the unit closed when, in December, Heddon-on-the-Wall was not supposed to have been infected? 

· A Commission decision on 18 January 2001 to test the potency of emergency stocks of FMD vaccine. Was this another coincidence? 

As to good evidence, the best we have as to the duration of the epidemic, the Inizan firmly puts the disease in sheep at the end of January, possibly in south Wales (although infection might have been acquired on the ferry, from sheep of unknown origin). 

Assuming Heddon-on-the-Wall (HOTW) was "case zero" (i.e., the source), and that there was no direct contact between Inizan's sheep and HOTW, the spread dynamics suggest a time interval of at least two weeks for the disease to spread. That would put overt infection in HOTW in mid-January with exposure in the first weeks of January. 

Then restrictions placed on the Hillside Animal Sanctuary, because of a visit by a member of staff in December to Heddon-on-the-Wall, remain curious. This still might simply be over-caution on the part of MAFF but it might also indicate that the Ministry is also working on a December time-frame for the start of the epidemic. 

Looking at the situation in the round, the epidemic profile - of extremely rapid spread - does not accord with a thesis that it was in the early stage when MAFF reported it. The policy of isolation and slaughter - had the epidemic been in its early stages - should have contained it. 

MAFF, itself, makes frequent references to movements of sheep which it has been unable to trace. But, for the disease to spread, these must have been movements of infected sheep. For the infection to have spread so rapidly, large numbers of sheep must have been infected, which suggests the infection must have been rife long before February. 

As to when the Ministry knew or suspected the presence of FMD, we still lack confirmation of the Galloway reports. This still precludes any assumption that MAFF was at this time suspecting FMD. Confirmation of these reports is, therefore, vital. 

MAFF have dismissed reports of MAFF officials inquiring about timber availability as part of a routine contingency planning exercise and therefore a coincidence. This is one hell of a coincidence, especially as one merchant had not been contacted since 1967 (the last outbreak). 

So far, therefore, there is good evidence of the epidemic starting, at the very least, in early January, but we have no firm evidence of MAFF prior knowledge. Much more information is coming in and will be checked. All information is welcome. 

ends 

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