F&D - UPDATE 10

Dr. Richard North PhD. [UKIP]
Research Director EDD [European Parliament]
22 April 2001
Vaccination imminent?

Vaccination imminent? 

It should not be forgotten that Blair's Damascene conversion to the cause of vaccination is driven by nothing more than the political imperative of being able to announce a June election. 

He is well aware that that FMD is about to break out into cattle - if it has not done so already - and that we are poised on the brink of a crisis that will make the events to date look like a dress-rehearsal. 

The last thing he wants is to face up to another round of speculation on the date of election, against the background of ever-increasing outbreak reports, with dead cattle piling up on the farms and a crisis even worse than has existed to date. 

Also, with the increasing resistance to large-scale burial sites and the growing restrictions on burning, the government is running out of disposal options. Tales of rotting corpses and devastated farms are not exactly the ideal backdrop for the launch of what promises to be a closely fought election. 

Blair's problem is further compounded by his analyses which indicate that the longer he leaves an election, the more difficult it will be to win convincingly. Apart from a deteriorating economic situation, he has fractious teachers to deal with, mutinous GPs, a growing crisis in the NHS and growing public disorder, tinged with racial overtones. 

Thus, the single most important political issue of the moment - an issue which has completely passed by most of the so-called "serious" political commentators - is foot and mouth disease. Success or otherwise on this front could, in the final analysis, dictate whether New Labour gets its much-coveted second term. 
Not for nothing, therefore, has the NuLab spin machine been working overtime during the last two days, desperately trying to project the "good news" that the epidemic is under control. Apart from wheeling out Prof David King to deliver the glad tidings, we have had Brigadier Birtwhistle rolled on as supporting cast, with Geoff Hoon, the egregious defence minister, crowing over the success of the slaughter programme. 

And behind the scenes there has been a concerted attempt to minimise the number of new outbreaks reported. The Ministry is no longer actively seeking out cases and is now relying only on reports from farmers and their vets. Flocks and herds in the contiguous cull zones - a number of which might reasonably be expected to be infected - are deliberately not being tested. 

New reports which are clinically diagnosed with FMD are being treated as "suspicious" and killed out without a confirmed outbreak notification. 

All this is a desperate gamble, a reckless attempt at news management, which is depriving epidemic managers of the tool they most need to control the disease - up-to-date and accurate information. 

But, if this transparent stratagem is currently fooling the ever-gullible media, the break-out into cattle cannot be concealed for too long. Sooner rather than later, reports will be too numerous even for the Ministry to conceal, and what will have to be presented as a "sudden" flare-up will have devastating political implications. 

However, in his advocacy of vaccination, Blair could have done without the obduracy of the NFU, motivated as always by money - the financial losses which will be incurred by its members who accept vaccination, and the possible impact on resumption of exports. President Ben Gill has asked for - and been refused - compensation, but feels secure enough to block Blair's initiative. 

He does so at his peril. Blair is playing for high stakes and is not going to let a bunch of recalcitrant farmers block his path to fame and glory. And not only is his continued premiership at stake. The issue is fast taking on the dimensions of a "who runs Britain" tussle, redolent of Heath's battle with the miners. Is it to be Tony Blair or Ben Gill? This is a question Blair cannot afford the media to be asking. 

Already, his "luvvies" in the animal rights brigade, strangely silent to date, have been mobilised. Led by Joanna Lumley, they demonstrated for vaccination this weekend. NuLab supporter, Chris Haskins, representing one of the biggest food processors in the country (Northern Foods) has also been enlisted to voice his support, appearing on the Sunday Frost programme. 

As a second arm of a strategy aimed at isolating the NFU, Blair has referred to "consumer issues" which must be satisfied - confident in the knowledge that this "straw dog" will be readily knocked down. Expect mid-week a statement from NuLab sympathisers, the Consumers Association, and possibly the Food Commission, all weighing in with support for vaccination, declaring consumers are quite satisfied with the safeguards. The RSPCA might also be roped in, especially as Elliot Morley has accepted an invitation to open its new headquarters 

Expect also, the announcement by Nick Brown of a new financial aid package for agriculture, further isolating the NFU. Never mind that, on examination, the "package" will turn out to be old money, recycled to make it look as if farmers are actually getting something new. By the time anyone realises, it will be too late. Gill will have been wrong-footed. 

By the end of the week, or shortly thereafter, vaccination will be so firmly on the agenda, with such a build-up of support from apparently diverse sources, that the NFU will be totally isolated. It will either have to cave in or be brushed aside. To do the latter would be a popular move as not a few organisations would love to see Gill get a bloody nose, to say nothing of many of his members. 

With the way thus clear, the government will then issue a draft "Vaccination Order" for consultation, with a restricted circulation list and an incredibly short response time. Seconds after the "consultation" period expires, the Order will be rushed onto the statute book and the vaccinators will move in the next day. 

Given the limited scale of the vaccination, it will not of course significantly affect the course of the epidemic. With evidence of the disease now having spread to feral deer, and with it already deeply entrenched in sheep, outcrops of disease will almost certainly continue to occur well into next year. Export resumption will gradually be perceived as a receding prospect. 

However, by that time, President Blair will have been re-elected. Secure in his new power base, he can deal with those problems as they arise. His main concern now is to get to that comfortable position. For that he must have vaccination. And he will get it. A mere President of the NFU is not going to stand in his way. 

******ENDS******

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